Here, the coastal local flood level is added on top of the projected SLR.Īllows choosing the RCP, the greenhouse gas concentration trajectory defined by the IPCC. While in extreme cases like China and the Netherlands it could experience 5-10m of extreme sea levels. Based on the Global tides and surge reanalysis by Muis et al., (2016), it is estimated that the extreme coastal water level could be from 0.2 – 2.8m over the mean level. More frequent coastal flooding is a direct impact of sea-level rise. While the pessimistic scenario added more mechanisms of ice-sheet melting, estimating SLR at 1m-2.5m in 2100, with a projection of 10m SLR at 2300. The mid-range scenario projected 0.5-1.2m of SLR based on different representative concentration pathways (RCP) defined by the IPCC. The SLR scenarios used in this study are based on the forecasts from Climate Central – Coastal Risk Screening Tool with the following parameters:įrom two highly cited journals by Kopp et al., estimating SLR mainly due to ocean thermal expansion and ice melt. These local levels bring variability to the projected SLR from 1m to 6.5m (eg.
However, in order to determine local sea level rise (SLR), one has to take into account local coastal flood levels which could be 2.8m above Mean Higher-High Water (MHHW) at extreme forecasts. Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 2m at the end of this century. Percentage and total population displacement indicated bottom right. Sea level rise projections by 2100 for two scenarios with the amount of rise in meters indicated (mild = 2m extreme = 4m).